Still second-order? European elections in the era of populism, extremism, and Euroscepticism

The continued relevance of the second-order elections (SOE) theory is one most widely debated issues in study European Parliament (EP) elections. While has been criticised from many angles, recent success populist, extremist, and Eurosceptic parties raises additional questions about applicability a model that depicts EP as low-stakes affair revolving around national issues. This article tests SOE with party-level data all 175 held between 1979 2019. turnout remains well below participation rates elections, 2019 were marked by significant reduction average gap. Across election years, party size potent predictor electoral gains losses Incumbency associated years. These effects are moderated cycle system some but not expectation performs worse countries fragmented systems was confirmed. All all, continues to wield explanatory power both West East.